Three sensitive issues are converging in Morocco, reviving a long-standing debate over the resilience of the kingdom’s political structure: renewed Rif activism at home and within the diaspora, the unresolved Western Sahara conflict, and growing questions surrounding the royal succession. None of these issues is new on its own, but their convergence has prompted observers to revisit scenarios that have long remained confined to academic discussions.
The Rif: From Al Hoceima to Brussels
The Rif issue remains one of Morocco’s most enduring internal challenges. The protest movement that began in Al Hoceima in late 2016 and continued through the summer of 2017 ended with the arrest of its leading figures most notably Nasser Zefzafi and prison sentences of up to 20 years on charges of undermining state security.
Nine years later, the issue remains unresolved. In Brussels, the Rif National Party organized a commemorative gathering marking the ninth anniversary of the death of Imad Attabi, who was fatally shot by Moroccan security forces during demonstrations in Al Hoceima on July 20, 2017. Participants displayed the flag of the “Republic of the Rif” and called for independence.
It is important, however, to distinguish the nature of the event. It was not a large-scale popular demonstration but a limited commemorative gathering organized by a political movement known for its separatist positions and supported mainly by segments of the Rif diaspora in Belgium and the Netherlands. While symbolically significant, it should not be taken as evidence of broad support within the Rif itself, where public demands have historically focused more on development, social justice, and civil rights than on secession.
At the same time, several Moroccan cities have witnessed youth-led protests since late 2025 under the banner of the “Generation Z 212” movement. The movement has focused primarily on healthcare, education, anti-corruption reforms, and the release of detained protesters. Although these demands are largely socio-economic rather than separatist, they reflect a broader climate of public discontent that could provide fertile ground for more radical narratives on the political margins, including in the Rif.
Western Sahara: The Unresolved Dispute
Western Sahara remains the most influential factor in any discussion about Morocco’s territorial cohesion. The conflict between Morocco and the Polisario Front has remained unresolved for decades, with UN-led efforts failing to produce a final political settlement. Any discussion of potential fragmentation cannot be separated from this issue, which Morocco regards as its foremost territorial integrity concern, while its opponents view it as an unresolved decolonization question.
The Succession Question: A Quiet Transition or a Silent Crisis?
The third issue is perhaps the most sensitive and least transparent: the royal succession.
Crown Prince Moulay Hassan, born in 2003, is the official heir to the Alaouite throne and has increasingly assumed prominent state responsibilities. In May 2026, King Mohammed VI appointed him Coordinator of the Offices and Services of the General Command of the Royal Armed Forcest the same position Mohammed VI held while serving as Crown Prince before ascending the throne. He has also represented the King with increasing frequency at international events, meetings with world leaders, and major national initiatives.
This gradual institutional transition has coincided with unconfirmed media speculation regarding the King’s health and alleged internal disagreements over the succession process. Some reports have cited claims attributed to the French newspaper Le Monde. These reports should be treated with considerable caution, as no official confirmation or independently verified evidence has substantiated claims of any open conflict within the royal family.
Between Theory and Reality
Some academic studies including one published by the Centre for Arab Unity Studies have explored theoretical scenarios involving the possible fragmentation of Morocco into ethnically or regionally based entities, including a hypothetical “Republic of the Rif,” should separatist movements gain significant momentum. However, the study itself presents this as a hypothetical scenario within academic debate rather than a description or prediction of current realities.
What is clear today is that Morocco faces growing social discontent, an unresolved Rif issue, a protracted Western Sahara conflict, and an institutional succession process unfolding amid unverified speculation. Together, these developments warrant close observation. Yet there remains a significant difference between acknowledging existing structural tensions and concluding that Morocco is on the verge of fragmentation. Responsible reporting requires staying firmly within the boundaries of verifiable facts.
