Ammar Belani dismantles the diplomacy of barter: Rabat sold Palestine for a fragile presidential recognition, while Abu Dhabi tied its military and digital ambitions to Washington’s keys.
Algeria Gate: The Abraham Accords did not create balanced alliances so much as a political marketplace in which Arab normalization with Israel was traded for carefully calculated American privileges. Morocco exchanged the resumption of ties with Tel Aviv for U.S. presidential recognition of its claimed sovereignty over Western Sahara. The UAE bet on access to American arms vaults, F-35 fighters, AI chips, and dual-use technologies.
What Rabat and Abu Dhabi marketed as a strategic breakthrough lacks real immunity. Morocco’s recognition never became binding federal law. The UAE’s fighter deal stalled when the administration changed. Advanced chips remain subject to licenses Washington can expand or restrict at will.
The Accords granted no permanent sovereign guarantees. They tied the two countries’ gains to the White House, Congress, American national-security needs, and Israel’s interests. Protecting those gains requires constant renewal of the political, security, and economic quid pro quo, turning a one-time deal into an open-ended invoice.
This is the conclusion of former Algerian diplomat Ammar Belani. In his reading, these are not institutionally protected alliances but executive and personal arrangements linked to Donald Trump that any later administration can revise, reduce, or reprice.
Rabat Sold the Principle and Bought a Declaration
In December 2020, the resumption of official Moroccan-Israeli relations coincided with Trump’s Presidential Proclamation 10126 recognizing Moroccan claims over Western Sahara. The recognition was the direct price for joining normalization.
Rabat presented it domestically as a historic settlement while concealing its institutional fragility. Issued by proclamation rather than congressional legislation, it remains open to executive revision. Even a renewed Trump stance does not convert it into a permanent legal commitment.
Morocco gained an important political position but no legal instrument that ends the conflict or alters the territory’s international status. Western Sahara remains on the UN list of Non-Self-Governing Territories, and the Sahrawi right to self-determination continues to appear in Security Council resolutions. Resolution 2797 of 31 October 2025 reaffirmed the need for a just, lasting, mutually acceptable solution based on self-determination. The White House can offer political support; it cannot erase a decolonization file or turn occupation into completed legal sovereignty.
Morocco therefore purchased a revisable recognition at a heavy political and moral cost; normalizing with Israel while King Mohammed VI chaired the Al-Quds Committee and turning the Palestinian cause into a bargaining chip. Naming a road to occupied Dakhla after Trump adds symbolism but no legislative immunity or standing in international law.
A Recognition That Requires Continuous Installments
Belani argues the deeper problem is the ongoing cost of protecting the recognition. Rabat cannot simply rest on the 2020 deal; it must continually prove its usefulness to American and Israeli strategy.
Hence Morocco offers its location, facilities, and resources; military and security cooperation, phosphates, strategic minerals, green hydrogen, Tanger Med logistics, and West African positioning. Greater fear of a recognition retreat increases the pressure to present itself as a ready Western platform.
The relationship is clearly unequal. Washington decides the value of the Moroccan contribution; Rabat bears the burden of maintaining and expanding normalization even when it becomes a domestic liability before a public that rejects the war on Gaza.
Normalization placed Morocco inside a soft circle of blackmail: protecting the gain requires paying more; each change of administration demands fresh proof of loyalty and utility.
“Freeze” for Public Consumption and Deals Under the Table
Official talk of cooling or freezing normalization managed popular anger. Diplomatic visibility declined, but military and security cooperation expanded.
SIPRI data show Israel became Morocco’s third-largest arms supplier in 2020–2024, with roughly 11 percent of imports after the United States and France. Cooperation also includes a near-billion-dollar Ofek-13 reconnaissance satellite and the 2021 defense agreement covering intelligence exchange, procurement, and military industries. These interests continued while official voices spoke of a political “freeze.”
Rabat used calming language for domestic consumption while keeping military doors open. The gap was visible during Israeli Transport Minister Miri Regev’s visit: protests erupted, and authorities quickly labeled the trip private. Changing protocol does not erase the political meaning of hosting an official linked to extreme rhetoric toward Palestinians.
It is two-faced diplomacy: calculated discourse for the street, calculated cooperation for the agencies. Credibility erodes when a state retains the Al-Quds Committee chairmanship while deepening its military partnership with Israel.
The UAE Bought a Promise, Not Fighters
Abu Dhabi sought to upgrade its military and technological position rather than resolve a territorial dispute. After normalization, the Trump administration notified Congress in November 2020 of a potential $23.4 billion package including up to 50 F-35s, 18 MQ-9 drones, and advanced munitions.
The transfer of power showed Abu Dhabi had obtained only initial political approval. The deal was reviewed; talks were suspended at the end of 2021 over American conditions, technology-security concerns, Israel’s qualitative edge, and UAE-China relations.
The Accords did not hand the UAE the F-35 key; they placed it before a door Washington controls and Israel can effectively block. Abu Dhabi normalizes and invests, yet the final decision remains American.
The Chip Bet Under American Supervision
After the F-35 setback, the UAE shifted focus to artificial intelligence and large data centers. That ambition depends on advanced American chips it neither produces nor controls.
In July 2026 Washington eased some export restrictions on AI chips, military equipment, commercial satellites, and dual-use technologies. The wider access remains subject to regulatory change. Concerns about technology leaking to China ensure every Emirati AI expansion faces American scrutiny over ownership, partners, data security, and final destinations.
Dependency simply moved from a fighter that never arrived to a chip that can be halted. Mechanisms linking large processor volumes to reciprocal U.S. investment and non-transfer guarantees further condition Abu Dhabi’s digital ambitions on American rules.
Washington Collects the Price and Retains the Veto
The 2006 Dubai Ports World episode showed that White House proximity offers no protection when Congress invokes national security. Privileges tied to a president’s person and circle become more vulnerable when power or majorities change.
Reports of dealings linked to the Trump family’s economic circle have fueled conflict-of-interest debates, making advanced-weapons or strategic-chip privileges especially open to re-examination.
Washington gains in every scenario: normalization, arms sales, investment, guarantees, technology monitoring, and the right to suspend or rewrite terms. The Arab side pays first and waits for delivery later.
Michigan Breaks the Aura of AIPAC
Fragility extends to shifting American politics on Israel. Long low-cost electoral support is becoming a point of Democratic division and a potential liability for some Republicans.
In the August 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary, Abdel-Fattah al-Sayyid won the nomination despite nearly $30 million in AIPAC and affiliated spending; the group’s largest single-race investment, plus tens of millions more from outside groups. Financial superiority did not decide the outcome.
The defeat does not end the lobby’s influence, but it ends the myth that its money always buys results. Open association can become a liability in states with significant Arab and Muslim communities and younger voters angry over Gaza. Even allies of Republican Mike Rogers reportedly sought to limit public AIPAC support for fear of political cost.
Widening Democratic division over Israel aid and the Gaza war means normalization-linked privileges face higher scrutiny and higher congressional cost.
November 2026 Begins the Reckoning
The November 2026 midterms will test the durability of what Morocco and the UAE obtained. A more oversight-minded Congress could expand reviews of arms deals, chip licenses, and advanced technology, and reopen the Western Sahara proclamation as a non-legislative act.
For the UAE the risk is immediate in dual-use technology, AI, and advanced weapons. For Morocco the sharper question is what remains if the president changes: recognition rests with the executive, the UN status of Western Sahara endures, and Rabat must keep proving its usefulness.
January 2029, the end of Trump’s term, will test whether the privileges survive without their original sponsor. A new president can revisit the proclamation, alter chip-export rules, or add military conditions. Neither capital can prevent it; both accepted building gains on an American decision they do not control.
A Deal Whose Key the Americans Hold
Belani concludes that Morocco and the UAE obtained real privileges but no permanent guarantees. Rabat holds a presidential recognition that does not cancel Western Sahara’s international legal status. Abu Dhabi enjoys wider access to weapons and chips, still contingent on American licenses and guarantees.
The Accords function as a contract the American side can interpret and amend. Israel receives normalization and security cooperation; the United States receives investment, markets, and influence; the Arab partners bear internal and moral costs while continually proving eligibility.
Morocco’s price was heavier: it placed Palestine on the scales of barter for a recognition that cannot change a single UN decision, expanded military ties with Israel, and used “freeze” rhetoric to calm a public that rejects turning the Al-Quds Committee chairmanship into cover for partnership with the occupation.
The UAE moved from chasing a stealth aircraft to chasing chips; in both cases the technology stayed behind an American door. Every advance requires Washington’s approval and faces tests involving China, Israel’s edge, and U.S. national security.
The Accords sold the illusion of permanent privilege and delivered membership in a renewable system of dependency. Normalization was delivered, the Arab price paid, while the gains remained deferred, conditional, or revocable.
November 2026 will set the new price Washington demands. January 2029 will show whether the two capitals obtained strategic partnerships or merely temporary promises that expire when their sponsor leaves the White House.
Until then Morocco continues paying to protect a recognition without legal immunity, and the UAE invests to protect a chip flow it does not control. Palestine, used as the bridge to these privileges, remains the starkest witness to a deal in which the stronger party secured every guarantee while the Arab side paid before verifying the goods would last.


